The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Identifieur interne : 001032 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001031; suivant : 001033The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Auteurs : Yang Yang [États-Unis] ; Jonathan D. Sugimoto [États-Unis] ; M. Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Nicole E. Basta [États-Unis] ; Dennis L. Chao [États-Unis] ; Laura Matrajt [États-Unis] ; Gail Potter [États-Unis] ; Eben Kenah [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the southern hemisphere, where the influenza season is underway. Here, based on reported case clusters in the USA, we estimate the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% (95% CI: 12.2%–50.5%). From a school outbreak, we estimate a school child infects 2.4 (95% CI: 1.8–3.2) other children within the school. We estimate the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3–1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6–3.2 days. We use a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the USA for the Fall, 2009. If vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.1177373
PubMed: 19745114
PubMed Central: 2880578
Affiliations:
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Chao</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Matrajt, Laura" sort="Matrajt, Laura" uniqKey="Matrajt L" first="Laura" last="Matrajt">Laura Matrajt</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A4">Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Potter, Gail" sort="Potter, Gail" uniqKey="Potter G" first="Gail" last="Potter">Gail Potter</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A5">Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kenah, Eben" sort="Kenah, Eben" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="Eben" last="Kenah">Eben Kenah</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A6">Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. 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Sugimoto</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Basta, Nicole E" sort="Basta, Nicole E" uniqKey="Basta N" first="Nicole E." last="Basta">Nicole E. Basta</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chao, Dennis L" sort="Chao, Dennis L" uniqKey="Chao D" first="Dennis L." last="Chao">Dennis L. Chao</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Matrajt, Laura" sort="Matrajt, Laura" uniqKey="Matrajt L" first="Laura" last="Matrajt">Laura Matrajt</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A4">Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Potter, Gail" sort="Potter, Gail" uniqKey="Potter G" first="Gail" last="Potter">Gail Potter</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A5">Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kenah, Eben" sort="Kenah, Eben" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="Eben" last="Kenah">Eben Kenah</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A6">Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="A3">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P1">Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the southern hemisphere, where the influenza season is underway. Here, based on reported case clusters in the USA, we estimate the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% (95% CI: 12.2%–50.5%). From a school outbreak, we estimate a school child infects 2.4 (95% CI: 1.8–3.2) other children within the school. We estimate the basic reproductive number, R<sub>0</sub>, to range from 1.3–1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6–3.2 days. We use a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the USA for the Fall, 2009. If vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.</p></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Seattle</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Washington (État)"><name sortKey="Yang, Yang" sort="Yang, Yang" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yang" last="Yang">Yang Yang</name></region><name sortKey="Basta, Nicole E" sort="Basta, Nicole E" uniqKey="Basta N" first="Nicole E." last="Basta">Nicole E. Basta</name><name sortKey="Basta, Nicole E" sort="Basta, Nicole E" uniqKey="Basta N" first="Nicole E." last="Basta">Nicole E. Basta</name><name sortKey="Chao, Dennis L" sort="Chao, Dennis L" uniqKey="Chao D" first="Dennis L." last="Chao">Dennis L. Chao</name><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Kenah, Eben" sort="Kenah, Eben" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="Eben" last="Kenah">Eben Kenah</name><name sortKey="Kenah, Eben" sort="Kenah, Eben" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="Eben" last="Kenah">Eben Kenah</name><name sortKey="Kenah, Eben" sort="Kenah, Eben" uniqKey="Kenah E" first="Eben" last="Kenah">Eben Kenah</name><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><name sortKey="Matrajt, Laura" sort="Matrajt, Laura" uniqKey="Matrajt L" first="Laura" last="Matrajt">Laura Matrajt</name><name sortKey="Potter, Gail" sort="Potter, Gail" uniqKey="Potter G" first="Gail" last="Potter">Gail Potter</name><name sortKey="Sugimoto, Jonathan D" sort="Sugimoto, Jonathan D" uniqKey="Sugimoto J" first="Jonathan D." last="Sugimoto">Jonathan D. Sugimoto</name><name sortKey="Sugimoto, Jonathan D" sort="Sugimoto, Jonathan D" uniqKey="Sugimoto J" first="Jonathan D." last="Sugimoto">Jonathan D. Sugimoto</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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